South Africa’s electricity system is showing clear signs of stabilization, as Eskom reports a significant drop in unplanned outages and fuel costs. Over the past year, unplanned generation losses have fallen sharply, averaging 7.22GW between 6 and 12 March, 53% lower than the same period last year. The unplanned capacity loss factor declined from 32.07% to 14.85%, reflecting a more reliable fleet.
This operational improvement has translated into financial relief. Diesel spending on open-cycle gas turbine plants dropped from R14.96-billion to R6.38-billion, a 57% decrease, while output remained steady at 1,075GWh. The year-to-date load factor for OCGT units also fell from 8.81% to 3.79%, showing reduced dependence on costly diesel generation.
Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF) has stayed consistently above 65%, reaching 65.85% for the financial year to date. On 83 occasions, the fleet achieved or exceeded the 70% EAF mark, demonstrating that the generation capacity is more reliable than in previous years. Additional capacity of 5.86GW in cold reserve and 3.33GW scheduled online provides flexibility to meet peak demand without load shedding.
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Despite these gains, challenges remain. Illegal connections and meter tampering continue to damage infrastructure and pose safety risks. Eskom has deployed temporary load reduction in high-risk areas while pursuing a phased programme to eliminate load reduction by 2027. So far, 151 feeders have been removed from load reduction, benefiting 199,160 customers, though roughly 65% of the target remains.
Technology is central to this effort. 444,062 smart meters have been installed nationally, with 171,507 on load reduction feeders, mostly in Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Limpopo, and KwaZulu-Natal. Installation teams face ongoing resistance, delaying about 122,000 planned meter conversions.
The utility is also addressing equity in electricity access. Free basic electricity beneficiaries have increased by 20%, from 485,000 to 582,110, reaching nearly 28% of eligible households.
Overall, South Africa has experienced just 26 hours of load shedding this financial year, all recorded in April and May 2025. Eskom’s combined operational, financial, and technological improvements indicate that the utility is moving toward a more stable power system, though long-term reliability depends on continued investment, enforcement, and compliance.
By Thuita Gatero, Managing Editor, Africa Digest News. He specializes in conversations around data centers, AI, cloud infrastructure, and energy.
