South Africa’s just energy transition needs to address economic and climate risks across all nine provinces, rather than concentrating primarily on coal-dependent Mpumalanga, according to Elize Hattingh, an economist and researcher with the Just Transition to a Decarbonised Economy for South Africa (JUST SA) project. In an opinion article published by the Mail & Guardian on 23 October, Hattingh argued that the transition must also account for changes affecting agriculture, manufacturing, transport, tourism and small businesses as the country moves towards a lower-carbon economy.
Mpumalanga remains central to the transition because of its dependence on coal mining and coal-fired electricity generation, which support jobs, local businesses and municipal revenue. However, the economic and environmental pressures facing other provinces differ significantly. Hattingh identified water insecurity and vulnerable agricultural livelihoods in the Eastern Cape, flooding and port-related challenges in KwaZulu-Natal, and the need to decarbonise energy-intensive industries in Gauteng. The Free State faces questions around drought, agriculture and mining-linked towns, while Limpopo must consider the future of mining, mineral processing and rural livelihoods.
The implications extend beyond the closure of fossil-fuel assets. In the Northern Cape, renewable energy development offers opportunities alongside persistent drought and spatial inequality. The Western Cape faces risks involving agriculture, tourism, water availability, wildfires and coastal conditions, while the North West must plan for mining communities and potential new mineral value chains. These differences mean that a single national transition strategy needs to be translated into responses shaped by local employment patterns, infrastructure, resources and climate exposure.
Hattingh pointed to a proposed JUST SA Community of Practice conference, scheduled for the first half of 2027, as an opportunity to bring provincial experiences into a shared discussion on green industrialisation, decent work and implementation. Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) has already held just-transition workshops in all nine provinces over the past two years. The proposed conference would build on that work by connecting provincial and municipal officials and other stakeholders around practical responses to local challenges.
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International cooperation is another part of the initiative. In October 2026, a 21-member South African delegation took part in a JUST SA study tour to India to examine approaches involving community enterprises, decentralised energy, resource efficiency and productive infrastructure. The programme included areas such as waste recycling, alternative building materials, water security and women-led renewable energy enterprises. Hattingh noted that transferring these approaches to South Africa would require careful assessment of costs, maintenance, skills, financing and demand.
The wider challenge is turning provincial priorities into projects that can attract funding, create livelihoods and deliver benefits to affected communities. Hattingh proposed stronger cooperation across renewable energy equipment, grid infrastructure, electric vehicles, agriculture, water technologies and the circular economy. Such coordination could connect provinces with strong renewable resources to regions with manufacturing capacity, while helping training institutions prepare workers for emerging opportunities. Delivering those outcomes will require clear responsibilities, funding, accountability and meaningful community participation in decisions about what gets built and who benefits.
