How much of South Africa’s power capacity will come from renewables by 2035?

By 2035, nearly half of the country’s installed electricity capacity is expected to come from renewable energy, according to new projections by data and analytics firm GlobalData. It is a striking shift for a country that has relied on coal for more than a century and one that still gets around 80% of its electricity from coal-fired power stations today.

GlobalData forecasts that renewables will account for 48.5% of South Africa’s total installed power capacity by 2035, up from 20.5% in 2024. That means solar, wind, and other clean technologies will move from the margins of the energy system to its centre in just over a decade.

While renewables will make up nearly half of installed capacity, their share of actual electricity generation is expected to rise from 8.9% in 2024 to 31.3% by 2035. Coal will still be doing heavy lifting, but its dominance will steadily weaken as ageing plants retire and new clean power comes online.

This transition is being driven by a mix of policy reform and economic necessity. South Africa has some of the best solar and onshore wind resources in the world. At the same time, Eskom’s coal fleet is old, unreliable, and expensive to maintain. Load shedding, which once felt permanent, forced government and business to confront the limits of the old system.

The Electricity Regulation Amendment Act of 2024 marked a turning point. It opened the door to a more competitive electricity market, allowing private generators to sell power more freely and reducing Eskom’s long-standing monopoly over generation and transmission. Since then, procurement of new renewable capacity has accelerated, particularly through the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP).

Read Also: When will ENGIE’s Corona solar PV project start supplying power to the grid?

South Africa’s official planning documents reflect this shift. The Integrated Resource Plan targets 6,000 MW of solar PV and 14,400 MW of wind capacity by 2030, while newer initiatives like the South Africa Renewable Energy Masterplan, launched in 2025, aim to build local manufacturing, skills, and financing around the clean energy economy.

GlobalData warns that South Africa’s grid infrastructure could become the biggest bottleneck to the energy transition. Eskom’s transmission network was designed around large coal stations clustered in Mpumalanga, not geographically dispersed wind and solar projects. As renewable capacity grows, the grid will need urgent upgrades to move power from where it is generated to where it is needed.

There is also the issue of timing. South Africa has struggled in the past with delayed bid windows and weak coordination between policy, finance, and technical planning. These delays can stall projects even when capital and demand exist.

Thermal power accounted for 72% of installed capacity in 2024, but that dominance is fading. Corporate energy buyers, municipalities, and households are increasingly turning to solar and storage—not because it is fashionable, but because it works. In many cases, renewable energy is now the cheapest and fastest way to add new capacity.

By 2035, South Africa’s power system will look very different from today’s. Coal will still be part of the mix, but it will no longer define it. Renewables will stand alongside it as a core pillar of energy supply.