On Nov. 21, the African Energy Chamber will convene the inaugural G20 Africa Energy Investment Forum. Amid surging solar imports and ambitious grid projects, the event’s centerpiece , a panel on “Scaling Large-Scale Energy & Infrastructure” promises to bridge lofty rhetoric with concrete deals, channeling public and private funds into the continent’s vast renewable potential.
Africa’s energy sector is a study in contrasts: home to one-fifth of the global population, it captures just 2 percent of clean energy investment. Total spending hit $50 billion in 2025, down a third from a decade ago, with oil and gas still claiming half, though renewables are gaining ground.
Public capital from bodies like the African Development Bank (AfDB) and G20 development finance institutions has dwindled to $20 billion annually, a 33 percent drop over 10 years, driven by an 85 percent cut in Chinese funding.
Private flows, however, have tripled to $40 billion since 2019, fueled by solar’s plummeting costs. Yet distribution is stark: South Africa and North Africa, with under 20 percent of the population, absorb over 45 percent of investments and 65 percent of capacity.
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Flows pulse quarterly, $4 billion in southern Africa deals in Q1 but the “Africa premium” inflates capital costs to 12-15 percent, versus 4-6 percent in Europe or the U.S.
Large-scale investments, typically exceeding $100 million or 150 megawatts, are key to unlocking this. West Africa’s Gambia River Basin Development Organization exemplifies the shift: an AfDB-backed €880 million project weaves a 1,677-kilometer, 225-kilovolt line across Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Senegal, enabling 500 megawatts of regional trade and slashing cross-border losses by 30 percent.
It has transitioned Guinea-Bissau to 100 percent hydroelectric imports, cutting reliance on costly fuel oil. Such interconnections foster economies of scale, turning isolated grids into resilient networks. Solar’s boom underscores readiness. Imports from China surged 60 percent to 15 gigawatts in the year to June, enough for 10 million homes with 25 countries importing over 100 megawatts each, up from 15.
The top five: South Africa (3.8 gigawatts, driven by industrial demand), Nigeria (1.7 gigawatts, leapfrogging grid failures), Algeria (1.2 gigawatts, up 33-fold on gas hybrids), Egypt (0.85 gigawatts, desert mega-farms) and Sudan (sixfold jump to 0.6 gigawatts). This distributed surge, rooftops in Lagos, farms in the Sahel, signals utility-scale potential, though petroleum imports still dwarf solar spending by 30 to 107 times in top markets.
The panel will confront thorny issues: blending intermittent renewables, solar and wind that falter with weather with baseload generation, like steady hydro or gas, plus batteries and smart grids for stability. Bankability hinges on revenue certainty (via power purchase agreements), risk mitigation (insurance, guarantees) and incentives (tax breaks), tools to lure wary lenders. To double investments to $200 billion yearly by 2030, $28 billion in concessional funds must mobilize $90 billion private, a tenfold leap.
Moving “beyond dialogue,” the G20 Africa Energy Investment Forum aims to deliver actionable blueprints, from blended-finance pilots to $10 billion public-private pacts and toolkits for scaling off-grid solutions. The quest for “real capital” reveals stark contrasts: China’s Belt and Road initiative surged to $30.5 billion for African renewables and infrastructure in early 2025, five times its prior year’s pace while Western Just Energy Transition Partnerships lag at $8 billion, mired in delays.
“Our continent is ready for infrastructure that delivers transformation,” says NJ Ayuk, African Energy Chamber’s executive chairman, “mapping real capital to match ambition with reality, aligned with G20 goals for energy access and clean growth.”
For the 2025-2030 cycle, $400 billion is needed just for transmission. This forum reframes Africa not as aid recipient, but as innovator, forging grids at speed, where investment fuels self-reliance and a powered future.
