After years of rolling blackouts and financial turmoil, South Africa’s power utility Eskom now claims to have turned the corner. The company says the grid is stable, performance is improving, and the lights are staying on longer than at any point in recent memory.
Its latest figures show an Energy Availability Factor (EAF) above 70%, unplanned outages down by nearly 2,000 MW, and just 13 days of load-shedding compared to 329 last year.
But as optimism spreads, many South Africans are asking: Is this turnaround real—or just another public relations push to calm a weary nation?
The Headline Numbers
According to Eskom’s system updates, the utility’s fleet has achieved a month-to-date EAF of about 70.45%, meaning over 70% of its generation capacity was available to meet demand.
Unplanned outages, long seen as Eskom’s Achilles heel, have dropped from around 11,500 MW a year ago to roughly 9,500 MW. And for the first time in eight years, Eskom recorded a profit, driven by lower diesel consumption, stricter cost control, and improved reliability at key plants.
On paper, it looks like a comeback story. The company credits its Generation Recovery Plan, a campaign of targeted maintenance, refurbishment, and tighter operational discipline.
The Public Mood: Relief, But Not Trust
Across South Africa, the improvement has been felt. Households have noticed fewer power cuts, and businesses are breathing easier. For the first time in years, production schedules aren’t constantly rewritten around blackout alerts.
Yet public trust in Eskom remains brittle. After years of promises and failed turnarounds, many citizens wonder whether the current calm is simply the “eye of the storm.”
Social media sentiment reflects cautious optimism tinged with skepticism. “It’s good that the lights are on,” one Johannesburg resident posted recently, “but I’ll believe Eskom’s stability when it lasts a full year.”
The Pattern of False Dawns
Eskom’s history gives reason for doubt. Over the past decade, the utility has repeatedly announced periods of stability, only for the system to relapse into chaos months later.
In 2018, officials promised that improved maintenance would curb load-shedding, yet the following year saw record blackouts. In 2021, a similar message was broadcast, but rolling cuts soon returned as multiple generating units failed.
These “false dawns” have left many wary of bold declarations. As one energy analyst put it, “We’ve heard the recovery story before. Eskom’s numbers must hold steady for at least a year before anyone calls it a real turnaround.”
What’s Different This Time?
Eskom insists this recovery is more than rhetoric. The Generation Recovery Plan, launched to restore operational reliability, has introduced structural reforms that were long overdue.
Key differences include:
- Prioritized maintenance of the most failure-prone units.
- Reduced diesel dependency through more stable coal output.
- Enhanced oversight of plant performance with real-time monitoring systems.
- Stronger governance and accountability at plant management level.
The company also says it has cleared some of the maintenance backlog and returned critical units at Kusile, Medupi, and Koeberg to service,adding significant capacity back to the grid.
Independent Reality Check
Independent observers agree that power stability has improved. Data from grid performance reports and real-time outage tracking confirms that South Africa has indeed experienced fewer blackouts in 2025 compared to the same period last year.
Industries such as mining, manufacturing, and retail have all noted lower downtime and reduced generator usage, pointing to a tangible operational benefit.
However, experts warn that Eskom’s coal fleet remains fragile. Several plants are decades old, and any cluster of failures could erase months of progress. “You can’t fix 20 years of decline in one year,” an energy consultant said. “The gains are real, but they are still reversible.”
Transparency Questions
Eskom’s data transparency has also come under scrutiny. While the company publishes regular performance updates, critics argue that independent verification of its EAF calculations would strengthen credibility.
Without third-party audits, skeptics say, it’s difficult to know whether reported gains reflect lasting improvements or short-term adjustments in measurement and maintenance scheduling.
Eskom counters that its data is publicly available and audited, but experts insist that public confidence can only be rebuilt through consistent transparency.
Why It Matters
Energy stability is not just a technical milestone, it’s an economic lifeline. Power shortages in recent years have shaved 1.5–2% off GDP growth annually, driven up inflation, and discouraged foreign investment.
If Eskom’s improvements are genuine and sustainable, the benefits could ripple across the economy:
- Manufacturers can plan production without costly disruptions.
- Investors can reconsider long-stalled projects.
- Consumers can enjoy stable prices as energy costs level out.
But if the current calm proves temporary, the consequences could be severe, another wave of blackouts would erode credibility and confidence faster than any previous crisis.
Between Optimism and Caution
So, is Eskom’s new stability real progress or just word of mouth?
The answer lies somewhere in between. The evidence of fewer power cuts and improved plant performance suggests Eskom is indeed regaining control of its operations. But the fragility of its infrastructure, combined with decades of underinvestment, means that full recovery remains a work in progress.
This moment of stability should be seen as a window of opportunity, not a victory lap. The challenge for Eskom, and for South Africa is to use this breathing space to accelerate reforms, diversify generation sources, and modernize the grid before the next crisis emerges.
Also read: Eskom Calls for Unified African Framework to Drive Green Energy Investment
FAQs
- Has load-shedding officially ended?
No. Eskom has drastically reduced it, but the system still faces risks. Sudden plant breakdowns or surges in demand can bring back scheduled outages. - What does “EAF above 70%” mean?
It means that more than 70% of Eskom’s total generation capacity is currently functional and available to meet national electricity demand. - Why do experts remain skeptical?
Because Eskom’s coal plants are old and unreliable, and past “recoveries” have not lasted long. Experts want to see stable performance sustained over time. - What would confirm that the recovery is real?
At least a year of stable power supply, consistent EAF above 70%, and transparent reporting verified by independent experts. - How does this affect ordinary citizens?
Stable electricity reduces generator costs, supports business recovery, and lowers inflation pressure on households. - What’s next for Eskom?
Maintaining plant reliability, integrating renewables into the grid, and keeping maintenance budgets consistent will determine whether this turnaround holds.
