By Thuita Gatero, Managing Editor, Africa Digest News. He specializes in conversations around data centers, AI, cloud infrastructure, and energy.
It took the Middle East and North Africa just 20 years to triple their electricity consumption more than 1,000 terawatt-hours added. Only China and India have driven global power demand faster.
Now comes the harder chapter: keeping the lights and the air conditioners on in one of the world’s hottest, driest regions without locking economies into a fossil-fuel trap.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that the region’s power demand is set to jump another 50% by 2035. To put that into perspective, that’s like adding the entire electricity consumption of Germany and Spain combined.
And the climate is not waiting politely. It’s about staying alive and not just industrial growth or urban development. The region’s rising temperatures and water scarcity mean electricity is life support. If current trends hold, meeting this surge will require burning:
- 2.8 million barrels of oil per day
- 500 billion cubic metres of natural gas per year
That would cement the region’s fossil-fuel dependence at the exact moment the rest of the world is accelerating away from it. North Africa, home to some of the world’s best solar resources still gets 90% of its electricity from oil and gas. In Egypt, Algeria, and Libya, natural gas is fiscal oxygen.
But the math is shifting. Burning export-grade fuel domestically means sacrificing foreign-currency revenue. It’s like cooking with your school fees. It works today and bankrupts tomorrow.
“Higher gas use could divert export revenues and trap countries like Egypt, Algeria, and Libya in a costly, carbon-intensive path,” warns Abdelaziz Khlaifat, energy engineering chair at the American University in Cairo. “The region risks exchanging short-term stability for long-term vulnerability.”
A deeper fossil-fuel lock-in risks:
- Bleeding export income
- Ballooning subsidy burdens
- Crowding out infrastructure investment
- Losing competitiveness in a decarbonizing global market
Read Also: EBRD’s $40 Million Bet on Infinity Signals Africa’s Coming Renewable Power Play
While Europe races to secure clean energy and the Gulf supercharges renewables and green hydrogen, North Africa risks becoming the last buyer at the fossil-fuel auction. Meanwhile, Morocco quietly built Africa’s most aggressive renewable pipeline. Egypt attracted over €13 billion in clean-energy financing from the EBRD alone since 2012. The playbook exists and the race is already on.
North Africa is short on time. If the region scales renewables, grid investments, and energy-efficiency policies now, it can:
- Preserve export revenue
- Build energy security
- Attract climate-aligned capital
- Become a Mediterranean renewable powerhouse
