Written By: Faith Jemosop
A string of recent United Nations reports and statements paints a stark picture: while renewables have entered a cost-competitive “tipping point” globally, most of Africa, including Kenya, is falling seriously behind in the green energy transition. Africa accounted for less than 2% of new green energy capacity in 2024, and solar capacity grew at just 7%, half the global average.
Sub‑Saharan Africa, which must triple its renewable capacity by 2030 to meet access and climate targets, will struggle without a dramatic approach shift. The UN Deputy Secretary‑General Amina Mohammed called for urgent mobilization to electrify 300 million Africans by 2030, using renewables as a foundation for sustainable development.
In Kenya, a declared pioneer in geothermal and wind, solar remains significantly under‑utilized, comprising only around 6.5% of total installed capacity. Across the continent, solar accounts for just 1% of its full deployment potential.
Why Africa and Kenya Are Falling Behind
1. Paradox of Great Potential, Limited Investment
Africa holds 60% of the world’s best solar resources, yet attracts under 3% of global renewable investment, a paradox of vast opportunity but limited execution. Climate finance flows remain alarmingly low, with Africa receiving only about 2% of global energy finance. The continent must quadruple annual climate finance flows to meet mitigation and adaptation goals.
2. Reliance on Fossil Fuels and Short‑Term Choices
Despite their long-term environmental costs, fossil fuels remain a go-to solution for many African policymakers trying to solve immediate access gaps. Coal, diesel, and gas dominate investment and policy support in some countries, and calls by the UN for a swift transition to renewables often receive little traction in policymaking circles.
3. Infrastructure, Regulation and Market Barriers
Even where large renewable projects exist, they face serious grid bottlenecks and delays. Kenya’s Lake Turkana Wind Farm, for instance, saw long delays before power could be transmitted. Across Africa, regulatory frameworks restrict small‑scale renewables. In countries like Uganda and Tanzania, self-generation rules and high minimum system thresholds limit decentralized solutions.
Interest rates across African economies remain 2–3 times higher than global averages, making it difficult for developers to secure viable project finance, especially for small-scale and off-grid ventures.
Kenya Leader in Geothermal, Yet Solar Opportunity Untapped
Kenya is an African success story in renewables. It is the continent’s leading geothermal energy producer, with nearly 989 MW of installed geothermal capacity, contributing close to 47% of national electricity generation. Wind energy projects like the 310 MW Lake Turkana Wind Farm and the 100 MW Kipeto Wind Farm further strengthen Kenya’s green grid.
Yet solar remains underdeveloped. Despite significant sunshine year-round, solar comprises only 6.5% of total energy capacity. National energy policies indicate a potential to push solar’s share closer to 17%, but execution has lagged.
While over 75% of Kenyan households now have electricity, many rural areas depend on off-grid solar kits and mini-grid systems. These systems have transformative potential. In one study, rural household incomes quadrupled within a year of gaining access to mini-grid solar, also boosting education, gender equity, and public health outcomes.
Despite this, Kenya has only tapped 4% of its total geothermal potential and a fraction of its possible wind and solar generation capacity.
Also read: Africa’s Oil & Gas Industry Stands Firm Against Foreign-Backed Criticism
UN Recommendations
Mobilize Long‑Term, Concessional Financing
The UN emphasizes the need for blended finance mechanisms, pairing concessional public funding with private capital, to reduce financial risk and make renewable energy projects more attractive to investors. Multilateral banks, private investors, and climate funds must all play a role in mobilizing long-term capital.
Reform Policy and Regulatory Frameworks
Governments must create consistent and transparent renewable energy auctions or tendering systems. Only a fraction of African countries currently have regular and investor-friendly renewable energy auction platforms. Outdated regulatory caps and grid access limitations need revision to support smaller players and off-grid innovators.
Expand Distributed and Off‑Grid Solutions
Off-grid solar solutions, especially pay-as-you-go (PAYG) models, have delivered energy to over 30 million households in Africa. These systems reduce reliance on diesel, improve livelihoods, and can be deployed quickly. Scaling them is vital for reaching remote communities still excluded from national grids.
Strengthen Regional Coordination and Grid Integration
Better regional power integration can help balance renewable generation across countries. Interconnected power pools and coordinated infrastructure development will reduce power losses and allow surplus energy to flow from areas of abundance to areas of deficit.
Why Slow Progress Matters
The 2030 Clock Is Ticking
Africa’s total renewable energy capacity reached around 69.9 GW in 2024, a 7.2% increase from the previous year. This is far below the global growth rate of 15.1%.
Sub-Saharan Africa must reach 166 GW by 2030, a more than threefold increase from current levels. If current trends continue, the continent risks missing its share of the global green transition and leaving over 565 million people in energy poverty.
Climate and Development Are Interlinked
Climate change is already having devastating economic effects on the continent, wiping out between 2–5% of African GDP annually through floods, droughts, crop failures, and health crises. A continued reliance on fossil fuels exacerbates this. Transitioning to renewables is both a climate necessity and a development imperative.
Missing the Green Industrial Opportunity
Globally, countries are investing heavily in green hydrogen, solar manufacturing, and battery storage, creating new industries and jobs. Africa, with its resource base and labour force, risks being left behind if it cannot attract the necessary investment to participate in this global industrial shift.
5 Strategic Focus Areas
- Scale Up Solar
Kenya must prioritize large-scale solar farms and rooftop installations to close its solar gap and reach 17–30% solar penetration.
- Finance Reform
Reducing interest rates, increasing access to concessional loans, and ensuring currency stability will make Kenya’s energy market more attractive for green investors.
- Regulatory Overhaul
Kenya needs consistent and competitive tendering for renewables, simplified grid access, and reduced bureaucratic hurdles for developers.
- Grid Modernization
Investments in transmission infrastructure and digital smart grids are vital to fully utilize renewable capacity and minimize technical losses.
- Green Industry Development
Developing local green-tech manufacturing (e.g., solar panels, batteries) and training the workforce for green jobs can make Kenya a clean energy innovation hub in East Africa.
Also read: Discovery Green and Southern Sun Sign Landmark 10-Year Green Energy Agreement
A recent African-led initiative launched at COP28, the Accelerated Partnership for Renewables in Africa (APRA), aims to raise Africa’s installed capacity from 56 GW in 2022 to 300 GW by 2030. But current deployment levels fall far short. Annual renewable additions must rise from 8 GW to at least 32.5 GW across the continent.
The stakes are high. Achieving this goal could lift millions out of energy poverty, create millions of jobs, and make Africa a credible climate leader. Failure to act decisively, on the other hand, risks locking in decades of fossil fuel dependency and missed development opportunities.
